By Redaction ARPS Media with UNCTAD
Global trade increased by an estimated $300 billion in the first half of 2025, with a growth rate of about 1.5% in Q1 and an expected acceleration to 2% in Q2.
Trade in services was the primary driver of growth, increasing by 9% over the past year. Developed nations outpaced developing countries in trade growth, with significant import increases from the US (14%) and exports from the EU (6%).
Conversely, developing countries saw a 2% decline in imports, while Africa experienced a 5% rise in exports.
Trade imbalances worsened, particularly for the US, which recorded significant deficits with China, the EU, and Vietnam. The outlook for the latter half of 2025 remains uncertain, with policy risks and geopolitical challenges looming, including new US tariffs and potential unilateral actions that could disrupt global supply chains.
However, there are signs of resilience, such as recovering freight indices and improving regional integration. Continued growth will depend on policy clarity and adaptability in supply chains, according to UNCTAD.
Read report at: Global Trade Update (July 2025): Global trade endures policy changes and geoeconomic risks | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
