The Context: Where are we?
The Recovery-Focused National Development Plan (RF-NDP) will be the country’s development blueprint for the period 2023 – 2027. It is expected to steer the country’s recovery from COVID-19, the Russia – Ukraine war, climate change, and other shocks that beset the country. The Plan is a successor to the National Development Plan 2018 – 2021, extended to 2022. The preparation of the RF-NDP adopted a “whole of society” approach that benefitted from a comprehensive desk review, stakeholder consultations and engagements, and sector working group sessions before its finalization.
The Plan has been formulated and will be implemented on the heels of a challenging global and regional economic context, marred by continuous uncertainties that have adverse impacts on developing countries, including The Gambia. The contraction in economic activities in the main advanced economies has spillover effects on The Gambia thus worsening current and trade account balances, hence lower external demand for Gambian exported goods and services. The global inflationary pressures also being experienced are putting pressures on domestic prices through imported food and energy prices, and the tightening of monetary policy in the developed economies is increasing the cost of debt servicing in developing countries like The Gambia. Furthermore, the tight global financial conditions pose challenges in accessing adequate financing for our development. As a result of these challenges, there are heightened fears of erosions in the progress made in health, education, environmental protection, and livelihoods with the possibility of reversing gains in poverty reduction, increasing household fragilities and vulnerabilities, and potentially undermining gains in democratic governance.
Premised on the Government’s overriding consideration to ensure that the transformational aspirations of Gambian citizens are addressed and to also help mitigate the above challenges; the Government will endeavor to enhance the resilience of our institutions and people in responding to these and other shocks, considering their likelihood of reoccurrence thus triggering the need to factor them into our development planning.
Executive Summary–Financing Strategy
Following the adoption by Cabinet in April 2023 of The Gambia’s RF-NDP 2023-2027, the Government through the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, developed a financing strategy – presented in this document – to serve as a framework for mobilizing resources and building the partnerships to implement the RF-NDP. The strategy outlines the required resource envelope to implement the plan’s underlying strategic objectives, pillars, programmes, and expected outcomes.
The RF-NDP 2023-2027 financing strategy builds on the previous NDP 2018-2021 financing
strategy and is part of the broader efforts towards the establishment of The Gambia’s Integrated National Financing Framework (INFF) which was initiated in 2017. Anchored in the 2015 Addis Ababa Action Agenda on financing for development, INFFs build on existing national structures to drive a comprehensive process to enhance the political momentum, coherent policies, and sustainable reforms that are needed to address financing bottlenecks and to mobilize the full range of domestic, international, public, and private development
resources for a country’s sustainable development priorities.
Since the previous Plan was launched in February 2018, much has changed in the regional and
global economic context. The challenging global and regional economic developments in 2022
and continuous uncertainties are expected to have adverse impacts on developing countries,
including The Gambia. These concerns underscore the need for a robust financing strategy to
ensure that the government can mobilize the required resources to achieve the goals and
strategic objectives of the RF-NDP.
To develop a fully costed financing strategy for the RF-NDP, the Ministry of Finance and
Economic Affairs (MoFEA) through Sector Working Groups (SWGs) undertook the following
key tasks:
- Assessment of the overall cost of implementing all the pillars, outcomes, and priorities of
the RF-NDP. Based on key expected results for each priority, as reflected in the Plan’s
results framework, cost elements were identified, and the estimated cost of
implementing the priority was determined. - An assessment of available funding was carried out for each priority through a mapping
of existing and pipeline projects across MDAs. - An analysis of the financing gap was determined based on the gross cost and the available
funding. - A detailed review and analysis of the development finance context – domestic and
international – was undertaken to identify the opportunities and challenges in resource
mobilization for the RF-NDP; and - Finally, strategies were identified for mobilizing resources for each pillar of the RF-NDP,
considering domestic, external, private sector, and innovative mechanisms.
Two scenarios were developed concerning the funding gap of the RF-NDP, as presented
below:
a) Optimistic funding scenario – with the assumption that resources will be secured to
finance all the planned actions outlined in the plan; and
b) Conservative funding scenario – that considers the challenging international and
domestic context and therefore envisages funding for only the top priorities of the
plan.
Under the optimistic scenario, the gross, available, and funding gap for the RF-NDP 2023-
2027 were as follows:
a) The Estimated Total (Gross) cost of the RF-NDP without considering available funding
is US$ 3.5 billion
b) Available funding based on mapping of existing and pipeline projects was estimated
at US$ 703.134 million.
c) The Funding gap was estimated at US$ 2.80 billion
Under this scenario, Pillar 7 – Energy Infrastructure and ICT – has the highest resource needs
(32.4%), followed by Pillar 4 -Human Capital – 26.9%. These two Pillars accounted for 59.3%
of the funding gap. This is followed by Pillar 5 – Agriculture, fisheries, and environment (14.3%)
and Pillar 2 – Governance reforms (11.3%). The relatively high funding gap for the governance
pillar relative to the rest of the pillars, is due to the need to cater for the implementation of
TRRC recommendations and addressing transitional justice issues. The details are shown in
Table 3.1 and the associated Figures 3.1 and 3.2 below.
Under the conservative scenario, the gross, available, and funding gap for the RF-NDP 2023-
2027 were as follows:
a) Gross costing of the RF-NDP without considering available funding is US$ 2.8 billion
b) Available funding based on mapping of existing and pipeline projects was estimated
at US$ 598 million.
c) The funding gap was estimated at US$ 2.213 billion
Under this scenario, Pillar 7 – Energy Infrastructure and ICT (30.7%), followed by Pillar 4 –
Human Capital – 25.0%. Combined these two Pillars accounted for a combined 55.7% of the
funding gap. This is followed by Pillar 5 – Agriculture, Fisheries, and Environment (16.6%) and
Pillar 2 – Governance (13.1%). These are shown in Table 3.2 and the associated Figures 3.3
and 3.4 below.
Comparable metrics with respect to NDP 2018-2021/22, were as follows: (i) Total Cost=US$
2.4 billion; (ii) Available Funding US$ 740 million; and (iii) Funding Gap=US$1.6 billion.
A sub-set of the priorities of the RF-NDP have been identified by the government – named
flagship projects – which, if successfully implemented will act as a catalyst for, and lead to,
positive impacts on the realization/achievement of the rest of the priorities of the RF-NDP, as
well as, most importantly, have a transformative effect on the socio-economic development
of the country. These flagships will therefore be targeted for close and regular monitoring
through an Executive Dashboard.
The RF-NDP 2023-2027 financing strategy is based on three broad sources of funding, namely:
(i) domestic resources (public and private); (ii) International resources (public, private, and
philanthropic); and (iii) Innovative mechanisms. Furthermore, the strategy has identified
specific and targeted actions for each of the seven pillars of the RF-NDP.
The strategies and actions identified were based on lessons learned from implementing the
resource mobilization strategy of NDP 2018-2021/22 and the prevailing context for
development finance, and these were:
- The strategies for resource mobilization for NDP 2018-2021/22 were general and not
specific, and they did not sufficiently explore innovative mechanisms, nor prioritize
domestic resources. Furthermore, there was no functional and effective coordination
and follow-up mechanism for the pledges made at the Brussels conference. - In terms of the current context the scope of the international development finance
environment has been constrained and adversely affected by recent global economic
and financial crises. The Global South heavily depended on international aid from
bilateral and multilateral donors to offset both domestic and international economic
and financial shocks and to complement their national development efforts. - In terms of the domestic context, the country’s primary challenge to financing its
economic development lies fundamentally in its economic structure. Low and
unsustainable growth restricts domestic resource mobilization efforts.
Notwithstanding, the Government has implemented several PFM reforms to better
manage its limited resources by addressing fiscal risks emanating from weaknesses in
public procurement processes and underperforming SOEs. Nonetheless, substantial
fiduciary risks persist especially in areas such as transparency of public finances,
budget reliability, predictability and control in budget execution, accounting and
reporting, policy-based fiscal strategy and budgeting, and management of
government assets and liabilities.
Given the above, the RF-NDP 2023-2027 financing strategy looks closely at innovative
mechanisms to complement traditional sources of funding. For developing countries such as
The Gambia, innovative financing approaches are crucial for tackling complex societal
challenges, promoting sustainable development, and bridging gaps in traditional financing
systems. These options foster creativity, collaboration, and efficiency in the funding
ecosystem.
Consequently, financing through Diaspora Investment, Public Private Partnerships, Capital
Markets, and asset recycling among others will be explored to ensure sustainability and
efficiency. The Government will explore diaspora investment to fund key flagship projects
such as Banjul Barra Bridge, Sting Corner- Abuko bypass, and other infrastructure projects.
The Government will pursue asset recycling initiatives such as the Africa50 project pilot on
the Senegambia Bridge for efficient resource mobilization. Other financing options will be
Climate funding (e.g. Green Climate Fund, adaptation fund, etc.) to support smart agriculture,
green public transport, and sustainable infrastructure among other mitigation measures.
The RF-NDP 2023-2027 financing strategy therefore builds upon current reforms the
government is implementing to support resource mobilization:
- A Capital Market Bill was passed by the National Assembly in 2023 and currently the
government is working on a roadmap to develop the needed infrastructure and
implementation procedure for the operationalization of the capital market.
- The first Gambia Diaspora Development Strategy was developed in 2018 and reviewed
and validated in 2023 to provide a strong foundation for the development of national
diaspora engagement and development policies as well as an opportunity to harness
and consolidate their contribution to national development. The Diaspora
Development Strategy is now aligned and incorporated into the RF-NDP.
Finally, to ensure effective implementation and monitoring of the financing strategy, a
financing strategy coordination task force has been established consisting of key government
entities. The main function of the task force is to ensure diligent follow-up on the strategies
outlined in this document and bring greater coherence and synergy in resource mobilization
efforts for the RF-NDP 2023-2027.
Finally, to ensure effective implementation and monitoring of the financing strategy, a
financing strategy coordination task force has been established consisting of key government
entities. The main function of the task force is to ensure diligent follow-up on the strategies
outlined in this document and bring greater coherence and synergy in resource mobilization
efforts for the RF-NDP 2023-2027.
